The Scott Brown Effect

Scott Brown certainly did not create the Scott Brown Effect. It just as easily could have been called the Chris Christie or the Robert McDonnell Effect. Just as Lou Gehrig was not the first to suffer from the disease which bears his name, Brown's sudden missile like ascent in the polls in Massachusetts brought confirmation to the public that Democrat vulnerability was on the rise. It really could have been named the Obama Effect as the leading reasoning in the polls suggest that displeasure with the president in all manner of his administration of our government was really the catalyst for the sudden surge toward the end of that campaign.

But what we are seeing today is no less miraculous regardless who you name it after. Around the country many formerly "unelectable" candidates, much as Mr. Brown was once thought to be by virtue his party affiliation in the state in which he was running, are finding themselves lifted by the rising tide of dismay. Other candidates who suffered no such stigma are also seeing a rise both in the polls and in the increase in money pouring into their campaigns. Here are a few examples of each...

Florida's Senate Race: Governor Charlie Crist (R) has seen the challenger in this primary run climb up the poll ladder rather swiftly following the Brown election. Marco Rubio now leads Christ in some polls, something not thought likely just a few months ago. Even better, the results of a head to head run off between either Republican vs. Meek (D). Rubio actually polls ahead of Crist in a head to head match up with Meek even stretching his theoretical win by two points beyond that of Crist's theoretical win. Rubio was thought to be unelectable earlier in the race because Crist was thought to be the logical candidate. Also showing dramatic growth has been the increase in contributions to the Rubio campaign.The campaign brought in $1.75 million for the 4th quarter of '09 compared to Crist's $2 million for the same time period. This was surprising as Rubio only had $900,000.00 on hand ending the 3rd quarter representing a nearly 3 fold increase.

Polling on voter views of the Florida hopefuls punctuate this even more: "Thirteen percent (13%) of voters in Florida have a very favorable opinion of Crist, but the same number (13%) view him very unfavorably.For Rubio, very favorables total 23% and very unfavorables 11%. Meek is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by 17%."

Down in Nevada where you have two primary hopefuls fighting it out for the GOP's affections we see Sue Lowden surging in the financial aspects of her campaign to unseat Majority Leader Harry Reid with over $800.000.00 compared to her closest rival at just $377,000.00 in the final quarter of the year. Lowden also enjoys a low unfavorable rating from the Mason Dixon poll of just 17% compared to Reid's whopping 52% unfavorable rating. And while Reid enjoys a pile of money at this point, reports suggest he is burning through it as fast as he can raise it. His end of 2009 advertising blitz attempting to resurrect his image seems to have been an exercise in throwing good money after bad as the three month blitz shows no change in his numbers for the positive. Keep in mind, just a year after the Democratic Party took complete control of both Congress and the White House and following the Great Evolver's mandates for hope and change, there should not be a Republican getting anywhere near Reid's office, let alone making him fight for his survival. It appears Sue Lowden didn't get that memo and intends to offer Reid an early retirement.

In other states it appears the same is happening. Incumbents are being treated to a race regardless of party. In Arizona former Presidential hopeful John McCain is going to have to fight for his seat against former House Member J.D. Hayworth and California's Barbara Boxer is under attack by of all people, a former CEO from Hewitt Packard, Carly Fiorina, who trails the Senator by only 7 points at this early stage of the game. In Arkansas we again find a potential fight for another low polling Democrat with a huge unfavorable rating, so large it even dwarfs Reid's. Blanche Lincoln may have a ton of money on hand but with 9 challengers so far, will she know where to spend it?

There can be no doubt the the election of Scott Brown did more for the anti-incumbent movement this year than probably even Obama as it showed that all important lesson that, "it can be done."

If you are a political junkie like I am this year holds the promise of the old Roman Colosseum, a modern day blood bath where Gladiators now fight with their words and with money, yet blood still will hit the floor as many of these races will become contentious. In the immortal words of the poets Drowning Pool,

"Beaten, why for (why for),

Can't take much more,

Here we go here we go here we go, now

One, nothing wrong with me
Two, nothing wrong with me
Three, nothing wrong with me
Four, nothing wrong with me

One ,something's got to give
Two, something's got to give
Three, something's got to give

Let the Bodies hit the floor,

Let the Bodies hit the floor..."

But what would I know; I'm just an Average American.